Can American Idol Survive Without Simon Cowell?

Contestants come and go. The judges’ table has seen some turnover. But Simon Cowell‘s exit Wednesday after nine seasons of American Idol is clearly the most momentous change in the FOX talent show’s history. Where do they go from here?

Some wonder if the program, whose viewership dropped 9 percent this season, can succeed without its famously caustic judge.

“He’s the patriarch who rules with an iron fist, he’s the villain, he’s the dragon you have to slay to get to your fortune,” Katherine Meizel, a Bowling Green State professor and author of the forthcoming book Idolized, tells The New York Times. “Losing him, I think Idol might have lost the plot, literally.”

Jake Austen, the author of TV-a-Go-Go, about rock music on television, agrees that Cowell’s exit makes it seem like Idol is “in its death throes, despite it still being one of the highest-rated shows.”

For his part, Cowell, 50, seems impatient to get on with other things. While he told fellow judge Ellen DeGeneres this week that he’s feeling a bit sad, he’s also clearly excited for a change — telling Oprah Winfrey last week that he’s “on automatic pilot” a lot of the time. “I can’t hide it when I’m bored. I just can’t fake it,” he said.

There’s only one Simon, but it will be up to FOX to find the best replacement it can. Those rumored to be in the mix include Jamie Foxx, Elton John, Tommy Mottola and Harry Connick Jr.

Thankfully for the network, it’s been down this road before. Though perhaps not as crucial to the show as Cowell, Paula Abdul, who left after season 8, was an emotional focal point at the judges’ table. But FOX cushioned the blow of her exit with Kara DioGuardi, who joined for season 8, and Ellen DeGeneres, added for season 9.

Also working in FOX’s favor: the fact that Idol, while down slightly in the ratings, is still a hugely popular show. Thus, viewers are likely to at least give Cowell’s replacement a fair shake next season. “Is Idol aging?” FOX entertainment president Kevin Reilly asked last week. “Maybe it is a little bit. I hope I look so good as I age.”